NYC Mayoral Election Preview and Democratic Primary Prediction

Tuesday, voters in the largest city in the United States will select the Democratic nominee for Mayor. This election has major implications for the city, but it will also set the tone for what the Trump era backlash will look like. The two leading candidates are former Governor Andrew Cuomo and State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. The two candidates at the top have completely different views about the future of the city and the Democratic Party. Additionally, New York City uses Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), which is a system where voters rank their top five candidates, and the votes are counted each round until a candidate gets a majority of the votes. Another note is that this article's “light” prediction will factor in what the polls are saying, along with what I’ve seen on the ground across Manhattan and Queens, as well as speaking briefly to candidates such as Cuomo, Lander, and Stringer this past month, and people involved with various campaigns.

The Outsiders

There are over ten candidates in this primary, and while a few have held or are currently holding office, they are pretty new to the mainstream and haven't received much attention or made a dent in the polls. These candidates are (pictured above, left to right) Michael Blake, Zellnor Myrie, and Whitney Tilson. Blake is a former vice chair of the DNC and an Assemblyman from the Bronx. Blake recently engaged in a cross-endorsement with Zorhan Mamdani to try to siphon voters from his progressive base and for Mamdani to gain support in The Bronx. In terms of Zellnor Myrie, he has been a State Senator from Queens since 2019, and previously worked as a lawyer. Myrie is supported by Congressmen Dan Goldman and looks to create a moderate coalition in Queens and Downtown Manhattan. Finally, Whitney Tilson is a founding member of Teaching for America and works as a hedge fund manager. Tilson is polling at around 1% but has announced he will be endorsing Cuomo as his number two choice. All these candidates are new to the stage and may not have a chance to win, but have created alliances and are looking for a future in New York City government.

The Comptrollers

Brad Lander and Scott Stringer and no strangers to politics in the Big Apple, both have served as Comptroller, meaning they helped manage and audit the city's budget. Stringer previously ran for Mayor in 2021 and at first was seen as a front runner and adopted progressive campaign rhetoric, but allegations hurt his campaign, and Stringer ended up with 5.5% in the first round. For this campaign, he’s running on his experience and focusing more on a moderate vision to help New Yorkers. In terms of Lander, he’s been preparing for this race ever since he took office as Comptroller in 2021. Lander is a progressive Democrat and entered into a co-endorsement with Zorhan Mamdani, and tonight they both appeared on the Colbert show. Landers' focus is beating Cuomo and Adams and making New York more affordable and supporting liberal positions, such as affordable housing by closing down NYC’s public golf courses, and also expanding healthcare access and increasing the minimum wage. Both candidates have similar pasts, as being the Comptroller and having a progressive focus, along with trying to create a lane against Cuomo this election.

The Speaker

Adrienne Adams was the last candidate to enter the race. She is the speaker of the New York City Council and the first woman to serve as a councilwoman in her district in Queens. She’s focused on revitalizing neighborhoods and communities by increasing public housing to deter people from leaving the city. She’s from Queens and expects big support in her neighborhood Jamaica Queens, from what I saw, there were many signs and flyers for her in Queens, but her last minute entry of the race may come back to hurt as she hasn’t had time to air ads and increase visibility outside queens, but as the only female in the race she has some built in support and is hoping to go from Speaker to Mayor.

The Progressive Socialist

Zohran Mamdani is the star for this election, and at just 33 years old, he is a close second to Cuomo. He has served as an assemblyman representing Astoria, Queens, for only the past four years, and was born in Uganda. His mother, Mira Nair, is a famous Indian filmmaker. He is a bold, outspoken Socialist. He wants free buses, an increase in wages, and taxation. He’s also an outspoken supporter of Palestine and Socialism, and previously was a key figure of the defund the police movement. He’s endorsed by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, and he has a large support among youth, but it’ll stand the test if he can do well with older voters and middle-aged voters in The Bronx and Manhattan.

The Governor

Andrew Cuomo is no stranger to politics. Initially, the HUD secretary under Bill Clinton and the Governor of New York State for over 10 years. However, he resigned in 2021 due to a sexual harassment scandal, but since then, he has claimed no responsibility. He is running for Mayor, focused on ending the corruption of Eric Adams and making the city safer, along with bringing the Democratic Party back to the center. Cuomo is supported by thousands of Union members. He also has the backing of the Queen‘s Democrats and Congressman Gregory Meeks, and many other endorsements from even people who had called on him to resign over his sexual harassment scandal. Cuomo has experience in governing, but also fighting Trump in the first term. He is polling consistently high, though, a poll today found Mamdani up in the ranked-choice head-to-head round. However, with Cuomo's name recognition, it is an uphill battle for candidates, but in New York City, anything can happen.